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Emerging technologies - the purported "smart helpmates" of the future -
are rapidly transforming the way we live and work. They come in all
shapes and sizes, from pocket-size PDAs with laptop-like capabilities to
micro cell phones with audio- and video-streaming and recording to the
latest refrigerator housing a computer-like monitor that allows you to
play music, watch TV, surf the net or snap digital photos. Before you
know it, we'll be able to work wherever, and whenever, we want. Or so
that's how we imagine the future of work.
As a work culture, we have made colossal leaps since the advent of the
microprocessor as well as other technical innovations that have doubled
the rate of progress every ten years. And if these exponential growth
models - such as the axiomatic Moore's Law of microprocessors - not only
hold true but also grow exponentially, what's in store for homo sapiens?
"In general, the computer has already wrought quite a revolution in the
world of work. As time unfolds, the idea of work will perhaps change all
together," explains Richard Volkman, assistant professor of computer
science at Southern Connecticut State University, "in ways that are not
yet exactly clear."
Efficiencies in the labor force brought about by computers and
high-speed circuits have already altered the work environment from a
quarter-century ago. Over the last decade, the use of outsourcing,
telecommuters, temporary workers and freelancers has increased
substantially and is expected to intensify - which will have profound
implications for policymakers.Rapidly evolving computer technology and
wireless applications, too, make it particularly attractive today to
work for yourself and make it enormously sensible for employers to use
independent contractors and temporary workers to reduce costs. Because
of this, our language referring to work will change semantically at both
the macro and micro levels.
"There'll be no more: 'I'm going to work,' or, 'I changed jobs,'" says
Volkman. "If work becomes where you are, there won't be a physical place
to go. If work no longer exists as a physical location, our perception
of it changes, too. And that changes the very heart of what it means to
work as we know it."
Eventually, it seems probable that new technologies will revolutionize
humanity in much the same way the Industrial Revolution transformed
Western civilization from an agricultural-based society to a
manufacturing one. The last quarter-century has wrought a technical
modernization that has given rise to the new knowledge class. In the
field of science, philosophy and law, a whole new can of worms has been
opened in the face of current business and economic woes such as
protectionism for ailing industries.
The biggest trends though will be in artificial intelligence, robotics
and cognitive sciences - proactive processes like human-computer
communication, says Drew McDermott, a professor of computer science at
Yale University, who believes advances in these key areas will change
social institutions and their responsiveness to the new world of
ubiquitous computing. Instantaneous collaboration across real and
superficial boundaries will also become the norm. The lines between work
and play continue to blur, but for those who want to avoid work, people
will always find ways to avoid it, adds McDermott. In addition, the
boundaries between computers will become more porous, introducing
ownership concerns.
"As voice recognition improves, we'll be talking to our computers
instead of typing but I'm not sure how that will change our way of
working besides making it easier and faster," says McDermott. "A
computer will not be able to respond outside of rudimentary speech or
carry on a meaningful conversation. Getting computers to understand
images and communicate with humans will allow computers to simulate
speech and facial movements, but that's beyond the predictable horizon
and I wouldn't want to say when that would be," he adds.
By contrast, Volkman believes that artificial intelligence will approach
human intelligence - and maybe even surpass it - in our lifetime.
Whether it's more hype than reality, movies like Spielberg's AI and
Ridley Scott's Blade Runner will initiate new debates on some
fascinating philosophical and ethical questions. "As a culture, we're
used to being the smartest creatures on the planet," Volkman says. "Now,
if we create a computer that is as smart or smarter than us, it will
upset our view of the universe as man being at the top and in the center
of the natural world. The order of the universe which is essential to
Western culture since before the Middle Ages, known as the "Great Chain
of Being" in the mind of Mideastern philosophers, this whole order will
get disconcerted if we create an object that is more intelligent than
us."
Intelligence, the feature that differentiates humans from all other
animals and the rest of creation, has altered the very fabric of work
life. "By creating this intelligence, we've actually transformed
ourselves, let alone to think about the tiny transformations happening
in the way individuals work today," Volkman says. "With artificial
intelligence, we're talking about something that will completely change
the culture. It gets very hard to think much beyond that point."
There's a notion kicked around by technologists in futurist writings
called "the singularity." It references a point in the near future when
artificial intelligence becomes as intelligent or more intelligent than
humans, and evolution leaps into hyper-drive. The fact that we can
accomplish this at all, says Volkman, illustrates that "One of the
things that this new intelligence could put its mind towards is the
creation of an artificial intelligence more intelligent than it, which
then in turn can create intelligence more intelligent than it." And so
on.
"You can see how this very quickly will explode," says Volkman, "into
creating a 'thing' that stands to us in terms of knowledge and
intelligence, the way we now stand to dogs or other animals, that can
understand things that we can't comprehend. If that happens, they call
this the moment of 'singularity on the event horizon' - sort of like the
black hole - all of our futurist thinking ends there because you can't
imagine what the new intelligence is going to do, what it would want or
what we should do in respect to it. Even if it's smarter than us, if it
says, 'Do something,' should we do it?"
These are just a few of the larger issues we'll have to confront as a
society that are much bigger than just the world of work. Twenty years
down the road both Volkman and McDermott see miniaturization and
nanotechnology as some of the most hopeful and beneficial technologies
that are currently in the preliminary stages. The nuts and bolts are
being attacked right now by researchers and there are some composite
materials that are enabled by nanotechnology already. The ultimate
dream, says Volkman, is to not only be able to design super-strong
plastics, for instance, but actually to build things at the molecular
level - the merging of technology and biology. As technology blurs into
biology, we'll see people integrating advanced intelligence in their
bodies to halt deteriorating organs or limbs. Proponents believe we can
extend life expectancy by 25 years.
"On the other side of the spectrum, what does it do to us as a culture?"
asks Volkman, "beings that are used to having a very short or finite
amount of time in this life. What does it mean when all of a sudden you
don't see that prospect anymore?"
In the shorter term, as technology increases productivity, computers
will become incredibly more powerful and more portable. "Virtual
monitors and keyboards will make a huge difference in the way we work,
as will higher performance," says Yale's McDermott. "Probable reasoning
techniques, automatic deduction, automation of Web services that take
routine transactions and have them done by automated agents will be a
fairly invisible change. The kind of programs in robotics that can help
businesses, especially social robotics, will also play a major role in
seamlessly restructuring our work and social lives," he adds. "Once
joint technology and battery technology improves, robots will be running
around - but they've been saying that for decades. The last barrier to
fall will be the ability carry on a conversation. Wireless technologies
have already made a difference and will continue to make a difference in
the way we work. These advances will have profound impacts across the
local and global economies."
The computer plays a tremendously important role in globalization and
work collaboration, too. The efficiencies alone have uniformly increased
multinational collaboration and, for instance, brought prices down
across the board. On the whole, the benefits of emerging technologies
and globalization - often seen by technologists as intertwined - will
probably outweigh the costs. "The net effect will be to humanity's
benefit - though it will not be obvious in the short term," says Volkman.
"The great challenge for technology and globalization in the short term
will be able to articulate to the voters in a tangible way the future
benefits. That will not be easy, as long as it's not your job on the
chopping block.
But in the long term, it will be those who will lose the most," he adds.
"The people who will benefit the most from globalization will be Second
and Third World countries, the so-called bottom-feeders."
The potential ramification of even the simplest business/social contract
will now become scrutinized. "There are a lot of privacy and security
issues with employers using computers as a two-way mirror to monitor
employees and what they're working on," notes McDermott. "Once wireless
access becomes ubiquitous, the idea of 'private' ownership of a computer
will also be called into question. Wherever there is a computer, and
it's available, you'll use it. Ownership of the data will become
suspect. Is it yours or the employer's? When you save a file online or
on your employer's hard drive, you don't really know where the files are
located. When you work from home or in a cafe on your own laptop, whose
file is it? Although it's not happening today, I think it will become a
big issue in the future."
Durga Prasad, a professor of law and business ethics in the School of
Business at Southern Connecticut State and an expert in business and
society believes there are a myriad of privacy and security issues
surrounding technology that can be used to transfer information from one
entity or organization to another. "While the cell phone or computers
are being used for good purposes, our concern should be about the misuse
of these technologies in the future," says Prasad.
"And that's where the darkness lies. People have to be ethical and
socially responsible, though it seems as if that's getting harder with
the Internet and the ease of fast money. It's much easier to use the
computer today for private gains, by stealing, copying and using some of
these technologies for your own interests - it can harm entire
households and businesses. It's immoral for the employees and damaging
to the employers."
Companies will be implementing biometric security and customer-service
initiatives to improve day-to-day operations. The world of biometrics
includes fingerprint, iris, hand, face, signature, ear, voice and
gait-recognition technologies. The role within the context of user
recognition for transaction authorization is also a technology on the
verge of disrupting - or at least altering - our lives. "The distinction
between the recognition of an individual via an automated biometric
system and the fundamental notion of their identity is a subtle one,"
says Prasad. "We need to feel secure and trust that the technologies
will protect us. The danger is that when someone breaches security, the
whole system collapses."
New technological advantages will unleash a multitude of issues as well
as a host of productive new tools that will impact not only the way
we'll live and work, but how the world itself functions. Like it or not,
the world of work and our roles within it are changing at a furious
rate. The best advice from technologists is keep pace or become
outpaced. Then again, we're creatures of habit. There's only so much we
can "multi-task." It's future generations who will wonder how we ever
lived without the newest, latest, greatest techno gadget.
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